DCP BEATS UDA BY LANDSLIDE IN Ol KALOU PRE-ELECTION POLL

A new opinion poll has handed former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua's Democracy for the Citizens Party (DCP) a significant boost ahead of the July 16 Ol Kalou parliamentary by-election, with its candidate opening a commanding lead over President William Ruto's United Democratic Alliance (UDA).

The latest survey by Politrack Africa shows DCP candidate Sammy Douglas Kamau Waweru enjoying 70.2 percent support among likely voters, well ahead of UDA's Samuel Muchina Nyagah, who polled 23.1 percent.
Jubilee Party's Wilson Kigwa garnered 2.4 percent, while candidates from other parties attracted 2.8 percent. A further 2.3 percent of respondents said they were yet to make up their minds.

The findings indicate that, if current voting intentions remain unchanged through polling day, Waweru would secure the seat by a margin of nearly 47 percentage points.

Conducted between July 1 and July 3, the survey sampled 3,018 registered voters across all five wards of Ol Kalou Constituency through face-to-face interviews. Politrack Africa said the poll has a 95 percent confidence level and a margin of error of plus or minus two percentage points.

The party preference ratings reflected a similar trend. DCP attracted 70 percent support compared to 23.5 percent for UDA. Jubilee received 2.2 percent, while other political parties shared 0.3 percent. About 4 percent of those interviewed remained undecided.

The latest figures suggest that DCP has widened its advantage since an earlier Mizani Africa survey released in May. That poll had placed DCP candidate Sammy Ngotho at 61.4 percent, with UDA's Samuel Muchina at 18 percent, indicating that support for Gachagua's party has continued to grow as the by-election draws closer.

The contest was triggered by the death of Ol Kalou MP David Kiaraho and has steadily evolved beyond a race to replace the late legislator. Political observers now view it as an early test of strength between Gachagua's rapidly growing DCP and President Ruto's UDA as both camps seek to assert dominance in the Mt Kenya region ahead of the 2027 General Election.

The changing political landscape has also raised questions about the future of Jubilee Party in one of its traditional strongholds. Although Kiaraho was elected on a Jubilee ticket and later maintained close ties with the Kenya Kwanza administration, the latest surveys suggest UDA has not fully inherited his political support.

In a bid to remain competitive, former President Uhuru Kenyatta's Jubilee Party settled on Engineer Wilson Kigwa as its flag bearer after the party's National Elections Board and other organs opted to award him a direct ticket despite receiving applications from several aspirants.

Political analysts say the numbers point to a major realignment in Ol Kalou, with DCP appearing to have consolidated both party loyalty and candidate popularity. For UDA, the challenge now extends beyond mobilising supporters to reversing a widening perception gap in a constituency where it had hoped to capitalize on its position in government.

Beyond candidate popularity, the Politrack Africa survey also assessed public confidence in the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC).

According to the findings, 64 percent of respondents expressed confidence that the electoral commission would conduct a free and fair election. Twenty-one percent said they lacked confidence in the commission, while 15 percent remained undecided.

Among those who expressed confidence in the IEBC, 48 percent cited the commission's independence, 42 percent pointed to increased transparency in its electoral processes, while 38 percent said its previous performance gave them confidence in the upcoming vote.
The survey further offered an early indication of the constituency's political mood ahead of the 2027 presidential election.

Former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua emerged as the most preferred presidential candidate with 31.4 percent support. He was followed by former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang'i at 19.9 percent, while Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka polled 9.8 percent.
President William Ruto received 6.5 percent support among respondents, while Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna registered 3.3 percent. Martha Karua attracted 0.3 percent, with other potential candidates collectively accounting for 0.8 percent. However, 28 percent of respondents said they had not yet settled on a preferred presidential candidate.

The by-election campaign has unfolded amid heightened political tension, with allegations of campaign violence, voter bribery and intimidation dominating public debate. The IEBC has previously warned that continued insecurity and electoral malpractice could jeopardize the credibility of the exercise and even force postponement of the poll if order is not maintained.

Even so, campaigns have intensified in the final days, with both DCP and UDA stepping up grassroots mobilisation in an effort to sway the remaining undecided voters.

While the latest opinion polls point to a commanding DCP advantage, they remain a snapshot of voter sentiment at the time the surveys were conducted. The final verdict will ultimately rest with Ol Kalou voters when they head to the ballot on July 16.